Extending TRANSIMS Technology to an Integrated Multilevel Representation

The TRANSIMS system developed at Los Alamos in the USA over the past decade is a world leader in providing an integrated land-use transportation dynamical model for large areas with a million or more inhabitants. TRANSIMS uses standard survey data to create synthetic micropopulations, including family structure, to simulate trip making and emergent traffic dynamics. We propose to extend TRANSIMS by adapting it to a new multi-level representation, allowing dynamics to be algebraically integrated at the micro-, meso- and macro-levels. The new representation builds a lattice hierarchy in a way that integrates non-partitional hierarchies of links and routes based on the usual hierarchy of geographical zones, e.g. neighbourhoods, districts, cities, counties and countries. Applying the representation to a big city starts by defining sets of zones at different levels. At the first level, N, is the street. This can be subdivided to building plots at level N-1, buildings at level N-2, and even rooms at level N-3. At level N+1 are the neighbourhoods, at level N+2 is the set of district zones (each of them containing the different neighbourhoods in the previous level), and at the top level N+3 (in this case), is just one zone, the city itself. If a larger study area is to be considered, we would have a whole set of N+3 zones defining N+4-level areas, and so on, extending to the level of counties, countries or even continents. This paper will explain the fundamentals of TRANSIMS technology and compare it to other systems. We will show how TRANSIMS and the new multi-level representation can be brought together to give new insights into the macro-dynamics of very large road systems such as London, England and even the whole of Europe

Imitating Driver Behavior with Generative Adversarial Networks

The ability to accurately predict and simulate human driving behavior is critical for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional modeling methods have employed simple parametric models and behavioral cloning. This paper adopts a method for overcoming the problem of cascading errors inherent in prior approaches, resulting in realistic behavior that is robust to trajectory perturbations. We extend Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to the training of recurrent policies, and we demonstrate that our model outperforms rule-based controllers and maximum likelihood models in realistic highway simulations. Our model both reproduces emergent behavior of human drivers, such as lane change rate, while maintaining realistic control over long time horizons.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Emergent behaviors in the Internet of things: The ultimate ultra-large-scale system

To reach its potential, the Internet of Things (IoT) must break down the silos that limit applications' interoperability and hinder their manageability. Doing so leads to the building of ultra-large-scale systems (ULSS) in several areas, including autonomous vehicles, smart cities, and smart grids. The scope of ULSS is both large and complex. Thus, the authors propose Hierarchical Emergent Behaviors (HEB), a paradigm that builds on the concepts of emergent behavior and hierarchical organization. Rather than explicitly programming all possible decisions in the vast space of ULSS scenarios, HEB relies on the emergent behaviors induced by local rules at each level of the hierarchy. The authors discuss the modifications to classical IoT architectures required by HEB, as well as the new challenges. They also illustrate the HEB concepts in reference to autonomous vehicles. This use case paves the way to the discussion of new lines of research.Damian Roca work was supported by a Doctoral Scholarship provided by Fundación La Caixa. This work has been supported by the Spanish Government (Severo Ochoa grants SEV2015-0493) and by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (contracts TIN2015-65316-P).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Deep learning systems as complex networks

Thanks to the availability of large scale digital datasets and massive amounts of computational power, deep learning algorithms can learn representations of data by exploiting multiple levels of abstraction. These machine learning methods have greatly improved the state-of-the-art in many challenging cognitive tasks, such as visual object recognition, speech processing, natural language understanding and automatic translation. In particular, one class of deep learning models, known as deep belief networks, can discover intricate statistical structure in large data sets in a completely unsupervised fashion, by learning a generative model of the data using Hebbian-like learning mechanisms. Although these self-organizing systems can be conveniently formalized within the framework of statistical mechanics, their internal functioning remains opaque, because their emergent dynamics cannot be solved analytically. In this article we propose to study deep belief networks using techniques commonly employed in the study of complex networks, in order to gain some insights into the structural and functional properties of the computational graph resulting from the learning process.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figure

A Model of the Rise and Fall of Roads

Transportation network planning decisions made at one point of time can have profound impacts in the future. However, transportation networks are usually assumed tobe static in models of land use. A better understanding of the natural growth pattern of roads will provide valuable guidance to planners who try to shape the future network. This paper analyzes the relationships between network supply and travel demand, and describes a road development and degeneration mechanism microscopically at the linklevel. A simulation model of transportation network dynamics is developed, involving iterative evolution of travel demand patterns, network revenue policies, cost estimation,and investment rules. The model is applied to a real-world congesting network – the Twin Cities transportation network which comprises nearly 8,000 nodes and more than 20,000 links, using network data collected since year 1978. Four experiments are carried out with different initial conditions and constraints, the results from which allow us toexplore model properties such as computational feasibility, qualitative implications, potential calibration procedures, and predictive value. The hypothesis that roadhierarchies are emergent properties of transportation networks is confirmed, and the underlying reasons discovered. Spatial distribution of capacity, traffic flow, andcongestion in the transportation network is tracked over time. Potential improvements to the model in particular and future research directions in transportation network dynamicsin general are also discussed.Transportation network dynamics, Urban planning, Road suppl

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Chaperones as integrators of cellular networks: Changes of cellular integrity in stress and diseases

Cellular networks undergo rearrangements during stress and diseases. In un-stressed state the yeast protein-protein interaction network (interactome) is highly compact, and the centrally organized modules have a large overlap. During stress several original modules became more separated, and a number of novel modules also appear. A few basic functions, such as the proteasome preserve their central position. However, several functions with high energy demand, such the cell-cycle regulation loose their original centrality during stress. A number of key stress-dependent protein complexes, such as the disaggregation-specific chaperone, Hsp104, gain centrality in the stressed yeast interactome. Molecular chaperones, heat shock, or stress proteins form complex interaction networks (the chaperome) with each other and their partners. Here we show that the human chaperome recovers the segregation of protein synthesis-coupled and stress-related chaperones observed in yeast recently. Examination of yeast and human interactomes shows that (1) chaperones are inter-modular integrators of protein-protein interaction networks, which (2) often bridge hubs and (3) are favorite candidates for extensive phosphorylation. Moreover, chaperones (4) become more central in the organization of the isolated modules of the stressed yeast protein-protein interaction network, which highlights their importance in the de-coupling and re-coupling of network modules during and after stress. Chaperone-mediated evolvability of cellular networks may play a key role in cellular adaptation during stress and various polygenic and chronic diseases, such as cancer, diabetes or neurodegeneration.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, 1 glossar